PRESIDENT Goodluck Jonathan of the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is
set to defeat All Progressives
Congress (APC) presidential
candidate, Major-General
Muhammadu Buhari, with at least a
margin
of 17 per cent at the
presidential election scheduled to
hold on Saturday.
Contrary to earlier projections that
Buhari’s party, APC, would capture,
wholesale, the votes of the South-
West geopolitical zone, the reality on
ground on Tuesday, as revealed by
an independent survey, is that
President Jonathan had unlocked the
pathway to even out votes in the
region.
The survey was conducted by Chike
Uchime of Forward Magazine, a
research and publishing company
since 1995, and Daniel Dickson-
Okezie of Zevland Ventures Limited,
a leading research and security
consultancy firm.
Using 24,000 sample size across 33
states and the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT) to decide, through an
opinion survey, who will win the
presidential election, the outcome of
the research exercise was based on
three critical factors.
The factors were the respondents’
views on the achievements or
performance of the president from
2011 to date and to see how this can
affect his chances in the coming
election; the correlation between
the outcome of the 2011 presidential
election and the likely outcome of
the 2015 presidential election; and a
detailed study of the various
dynamics that had taken place since
2011 and the likely impact on the
outcome of the 2015 presidential
election.
According to the survey, “when
asked which of the two main political
parties they preferred, 65 per cent of
the respondents opted for PDP,
while 31 per cent favoured the APC,
one per cent went for other parties,
while the remaining two per cent
went for none of the parties.
“Again, the respondents, when
asked, also rated President
Jonathan’s performance in 10 critical
areas - security, agriculture, power,
education, transportation, aviation,
press freedom, fight against
corruption, human rights, job
creation and women empowerment
above.
“When the respondents were asked
if they would vote for Jonathan based
on their responses to the previous
questions, 62.2 per cent answered
in the affirmative, and 29.7 per cent
in the negative, while 4.1 per cent
were undecided.
“On the question whether Major-
General Buhari is considered more
capable in addressing the critical
issues in the areas listed, 30.7 per
cent answered in the affirmative,
while 65 per cent answered in the
negative. Another 4.3 per cent of
the respondents were undecided.
“From the foregoing, it was
becoming visible the likely direction
of their votes.”
The survey report highlighted the
dynamics that had taken place since
the 2011 election and the likely
impact on the outcome of the 2015
presidential election.
According to the report, “issues
addressed include: effect of intra-
party conflicts; effect of mass
defection/cross-carpeting; effect of
endorsements by ethno-religious
groups, socio-cultural groups,
paramount rulers and others; and
inter-religious/ethnic conflicts since
2011
“Each of these issues will either have
a positive or negative impact on the
candidates. For example, the mass
defection of some PDP governors and
party stalwarts to the APC may affect
the PDP negatively in some states.
“However, this likely setback may be
cancelled out by some high-profile
defection into PDP such as that of
Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo
State and those of former Governors
Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa,
Ibrahim Shekarau, etc.
“Also, the effect of the conflict
between the Fulani cattle rearers
and indigenous farmers mainly in the
North Central states and Taraba
State in North East may likely cost
Buhari, who is a Fulani, some
important votes in the areas
concerned.
“Equally, the increase in clashes
between the Hausa Fulani and the
people of Southern Kaduna might
likely tilt a win in favour of Jonathan.
“The volume of endorsements by
traditional rulers and ethnic
nationality groups among others in
the South East, South-South and
South West has also enhanced
President Jonathan’s chances.
“Another critical factor examined
which may work in favour of the
president is the recent and
aggressive deployment of the social
media network, which now ensures a
wider reach and delivery of its
programmes to the people.
“Hitherto, the APC was in control
and more effective in the use of the
social media.
“In conclusion, based on our findings
as enumerated above, Dr Jonathan
stands an excellent chance of
winning the 2015 presidential
election by at least a 17 per cent
margin, over his closest rival,” the
report noted.
According to the coordinator of the
survey, the report did away with the
dubious format of allocating states to
a candidate based on some illusory
expectations.
US poll predicts Jonathan’s slim win
A combined survey by an
international pollster based in the
United States has predicted a slim
win for President Goodluck Jonathan
on Saturday.
Williams and Associates, a Boston
(MA) based research and consulting
firm, has finally released the results
of four national surveys conducted in
Nigeria between March 4 and March
20, showing a highly-probable
Jonathan’s re-election.
A United Kingdom pollster, Kevin,
Charlyn and Kimberly Associates, had
also projected Jonathan’s re-election
with a 13 per cent probable margin.
The USA polling, however, gave the
president a six per cent probable
victory margin over his closest
challenger, former head of state,
Major-General Muhammadu Buhari
of the All Progressives Congress
(APC).
The polling was reportedly conducted
in all the 36 states of the federation
and the Federal Capital Territory,
Abuja, with 5,000 respondents used
for sampling.
When compiled together the results
of the four surveys, conducted
through in-person and face-to-face
interviews among Nigerians of voting
age in all the states and Abuja,
showed Jonathan maintain a slim
lead over Buhari.
The poll results are published on
http://www.williamspoils.com
Among the questions asked
respondents was: “Here is a list of
candidates for president and vice
president currently on the ballot for
the upcoming elections. If the
elections were held today, for which
one of these teams would you vote?”
The Jonathan/Sambo ticket got 50
per cent, while the Buhari/Osinbajo
ticket got 44 per cent. Others/Don’t
know was three per cent, while
Undecided was also 3 per cent.
The question on whether the
president performed his duties well
enough to deserve re-election got
him a 49 per cent “Yes” and 46 per
cent “No”.
The results suggested a close race
between the duo, with Jonathan
expected to have a razor-edge win to
be re-elected to a second term.
When asked what issue would be
most important to them when
determining their votes for
president, “Jobs and Unemployment
and Economic Growth” topped the
wish-list with 44 per cent.
Jonathan leading by 7.01% —Survey
A poll result released on Tuesday by
the Nigeria Polls and Survey group
has put the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) presidential candidate,
Dr Goodluck Jonathan, ahead of his
closest rival, Major-General
Muhammadu Buhari of the All
Progressives Congress (APC) with a
slight margin of 7.01 per cent.
The nationwide poll was conducted
by reputable group of social
scientists.
According to a release signed by the
coordinator of the group, Dr Ayo
Alao, results from the poll were
based on a five-item questionnaire
administered on a total of 10,294
registered voters, who were selected
from the 36 states of the federation
and the Federal Capital Territory
(FCT).
Of these, 6,592 were males and
3,702 females.
It added that the questionnaire
sought to elicit information on
respondent’s knowledge of political
parties, possession of PVCs,
awareness of the election date,
willingness to vote during the
election and the respondents’
preferred presidential candidate.
The Nigeria Polls and Survey group,
in the release, said a total of 5,508
respondents indicated their intention
to vote for the presidential candidate
of PDP), compared with a total of
4,786 respondents who favoured the
presidential candidate of APC.
The data analysis showed that the
PDP candidate, Jonathan, may likely
have a better showing in the
presidential election in South-South,
South-East, and the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT), while Buhari of APC
may poll more votes in North-West
and North-East.
South-West and North-Central,
according to the survey, remained
largely the battle ground that may
swing victory either way.
The steps taken by President
Jonathan to ensure the
implementation of the
recommendation of the national
conference also look favourable for
his candidacy.
The analysis also indicated that
primary primordial factors like ethnic
affiliations, religion and social class
may be the influencing factors in the
election.
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is
set to defeat All Progressives
Congress (APC) presidential
candidate, Major-General
Muhammadu Buhari, with at least a
margin
of 17 per cent at the
presidential election scheduled to
hold on Saturday.
Contrary to earlier projections that
Buhari’s party, APC, would capture,
wholesale, the votes of the South-
West geopolitical zone, the reality on
ground on Tuesday, as revealed by
an independent survey, is that
President Jonathan had unlocked the
pathway to even out votes in the
region.
The survey was conducted by Chike
Uchime of Forward Magazine, a
research and publishing company
since 1995, and Daniel Dickson-
Okezie of Zevland Ventures Limited,
a leading research and security
consultancy firm.
Using 24,000 sample size across 33
states and the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT) to decide, through an
opinion survey, who will win the
presidential election, the outcome of
the research exercise was based on
three critical factors.
The factors were the respondents’
views on the achievements or
performance of the president from
2011 to date and to see how this can
affect his chances in the coming
election; the correlation between
the outcome of the 2011 presidential
election and the likely outcome of
the 2015 presidential election; and a
detailed study of the various
dynamics that had taken place since
2011 and the likely impact on the
outcome of the 2015 presidential
election.
According to the survey, “when
asked which of the two main political
parties they preferred, 65 per cent of
the respondents opted for PDP,
while 31 per cent favoured the APC,
one per cent went for other parties,
while the remaining two per cent
went for none of the parties.
“Again, the respondents, when
asked, also rated President
Jonathan’s performance in 10 critical
areas - security, agriculture, power,
education, transportation, aviation,
press freedom, fight against
corruption, human rights, job
creation and women empowerment
above.
“When the respondents were asked
if they would vote for Jonathan based
on their responses to the previous
questions, 62.2 per cent answered
in the affirmative, and 29.7 per cent
in the negative, while 4.1 per cent
were undecided.
“On the question whether Major-
General Buhari is considered more
capable in addressing the critical
issues in the areas listed, 30.7 per
cent answered in the affirmative,
while 65 per cent answered in the
negative. Another 4.3 per cent of
the respondents were undecided.
“From the foregoing, it was
becoming visible the likely direction
of their votes.”
The survey report highlighted the
dynamics that had taken place since
the 2011 election and the likely
impact on the outcome of the 2015
presidential election.
According to the report, “issues
addressed include: effect of intra-
party conflicts; effect of mass
defection/cross-carpeting; effect of
endorsements by ethno-religious
groups, socio-cultural groups,
paramount rulers and others; and
inter-religious/ethnic conflicts since
2011
“Each of these issues will either have
a positive or negative impact on the
candidates. For example, the mass
defection of some PDP governors and
party stalwarts to the APC may affect
the PDP negatively in some states.
“However, this likely setback may be
cancelled out by some high-profile
defection into PDP such as that of
Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo
State and those of former Governors
Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa,
Ibrahim Shekarau, etc.
“Also, the effect of the conflict
between the Fulani cattle rearers
and indigenous farmers mainly in the
North Central states and Taraba
State in North East may likely cost
Buhari, who is a Fulani, some
important votes in the areas
concerned.
“Equally, the increase in clashes
between the Hausa Fulani and the
people of Southern Kaduna might
likely tilt a win in favour of Jonathan.
“The volume of endorsements by
traditional rulers and ethnic
nationality groups among others in
the South East, South-South and
South West has also enhanced
President Jonathan’s chances.
“Another critical factor examined
which may work in favour of the
president is the recent and
aggressive deployment of the social
media network, which now ensures a
wider reach and delivery of its
programmes to the people.
“Hitherto, the APC was in control
and more effective in the use of the
social media.
“In conclusion, based on our findings
as enumerated above, Dr Jonathan
stands an excellent chance of
winning the 2015 presidential
election by at least a 17 per cent
margin, over his closest rival,” the
report noted.
According to the coordinator of the
survey, the report did away with the
dubious format of allocating states to
a candidate based on some illusory
expectations.
US poll predicts Jonathan’s slim win
A combined survey by an
international pollster based in the
United States has predicted a slim
win for President Goodluck Jonathan
on Saturday.
Williams and Associates, a Boston
(MA) based research and consulting
firm, has finally released the results
of four national surveys conducted in
Nigeria between March 4 and March
20, showing a highly-probable
Jonathan’s re-election.
A United Kingdom pollster, Kevin,
Charlyn and Kimberly Associates, had
also projected Jonathan’s re-election
with a 13 per cent probable margin.
The USA polling, however, gave the
president a six per cent probable
victory margin over his closest
challenger, former head of state,
Major-General Muhammadu Buhari
of the All Progressives Congress
(APC).
The polling was reportedly conducted
in all the 36 states of the federation
and the Federal Capital Territory,
Abuja, with 5,000 respondents used
for sampling.
When compiled together the results
of the four surveys, conducted
through in-person and face-to-face
interviews among Nigerians of voting
age in all the states and Abuja,
showed Jonathan maintain a slim
lead over Buhari.
The poll results are published on
http://www.williamspoils.com
Among the questions asked
respondents was: “Here is a list of
candidates for president and vice
president currently on the ballot for
the upcoming elections. If the
elections were held today, for which
one of these teams would you vote?”
The Jonathan/Sambo ticket got 50
per cent, while the Buhari/Osinbajo
ticket got 44 per cent. Others/Don’t
know was three per cent, while
Undecided was also 3 per cent.
The question on whether the
president performed his duties well
enough to deserve re-election got
him a 49 per cent “Yes” and 46 per
cent “No”.
The results suggested a close race
between the duo, with Jonathan
expected to have a razor-edge win to
be re-elected to a second term.
When asked what issue would be
most important to them when
determining their votes for
president, “Jobs and Unemployment
and Economic Growth” topped the
wish-list with 44 per cent.
Jonathan leading by 7.01% —Survey
A poll result released on Tuesday by
the Nigeria Polls and Survey group
has put the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) presidential candidate,
Dr Goodluck Jonathan, ahead of his
closest rival, Major-General
Muhammadu Buhari of the All
Progressives Congress (APC) with a
slight margin of 7.01 per cent.
The nationwide poll was conducted
by reputable group of social
scientists.
According to a release signed by the
coordinator of the group, Dr Ayo
Alao, results from the poll were
based on a five-item questionnaire
administered on a total of 10,294
registered voters, who were selected
from the 36 states of the federation
and the Federal Capital Territory
(FCT).
Of these, 6,592 were males and
3,702 females.
It added that the questionnaire
sought to elicit information on
respondent’s knowledge of political
parties, possession of PVCs,
awareness of the election date,
willingness to vote during the
election and the respondents’
preferred presidential candidate.
The Nigeria Polls and Survey group,
in the release, said a total of 5,508
respondents indicated their intention
to vote for the presidential candidate
of PDP), compared with a total of
4,786 respondents who favoured the
presidential candidate of APC.
The data analysis showed that the
PDP candidate, Jonathan, may likely
have a better showing in the
presidential election in South-South,
South-East, and the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT), while Buhari of APC
may poll more votes in North-West
and North-East.
South-West and North-Central,
according to the survey, remained
largely the battle ground that may
swing victory either way.
The steps taken by President
Jonathan to ensure the
implementation of the
recommendation of the national
conference also look favourable for
his candidacy.
The analysis also indicated that
primary primordial factors like ethnic
affiliations, religion and social class
may be the influencing factors in the
election.
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